The Role of Proper Analysis in Betting
The most important aspect when it comes to sports betting is, of course, the correct analysis of a game. After all, what good are the best odds at TonyBet Ireland if the analysis isn’t right? When it comes to analysis, competence should of course be at the forefront. Perhaps the aforementioned journal has already been able to bring something to light that indicates which sport should be given special attention.
Focusing on Marginal Sports
Especially in marginal sports, such as eSports, martial arts, etc., both Asian and European bookmakers are sometimes overwhelmed. In markets with low stakes, the best oddsmakers are often not used, which means that betting odds can sometimes have a very high value. Specializing in fringe sports therefore makes analysis much easier.
How to Approach Major Sports Analysis
When it comes to the main sports, the analysis is correspondingly more difficult. Calculating your own odds is the top priority before you start looking at a bet. Almost every sports betting professional does this. After all, anyone who first looks at the odds and then makes their own individual considerations can no longer act objectively. It is therefore important to take a sheet of paper and a pencil and think for yourself before looking at the odds. Then compare the work you have done with the odds offered by the bookmakers. It is now important not to bet wildly straight away. Just because a discrepancy has been discovered does not mean that the bookmaker is wrong. Asian bookmakers in particular have very accurate betting odds. This means that it is only worth taking another look if the difference is noticeably large.
Understanding the Discrepancy
The first question that every sports bettor should ask themselves is why the difference is so big. What does the bookmaker see that the bettor does not see or what does the bettor see that the bookmaker does not see?
What Bookmakers Might Miss
Here is a small list of things that the bookmaker may not see, but that every betting professional should have considered. This could speak in favor of a valuebet:
Bookmakers work with so-called power ratings. They give each team a certain number of points and adjust them a little depending on home advantage, injured players etc.. But basically it all boils down to power ratings. These are known in professional circles to be adjusted rather slowly.
Accordingly, if a team is actually worse than is currently generally assumed, wonderful value bets are created.
Example 1: Germany in the 2018 World Cup
Here are three examples:
During the 2018 World Cup in Russia, Germany had consistently low odds in the group stage. A trained eye could have quickly recognized that the German national team was actually playing poorly. There was no real bad luck involved. They simply played badly. But the bookmakers are very slow to adjust their power ratings. This is the reason why Germany had enormously low odds even against Sweden and South Korea. An expert in this field would have recognized this gap and struck.
Example 2: Borussia Dortmund in 2014/15
The second example is Borussia Dortmund in the 2014/15 season. After a few match days, it quickly became clear to an expert that BVB did not have the class that the bookmakers were predicting. Even in 18th place, Dortmund was almost always the favorite in every match. Here, too, Dortmund lived on good ratings and successes from previous years for a very long time. Betting against Dortmund was a real goldmine by the middle of the first half of the season at the latest.
Example 3: 1. FC Köln in 2017/18
The third example is 1. FC Köln from the 2017/18 season. In the previous year, the Billy Goats reached the Euro League. Accordingly, they built up a good rating. In the 2017/18 season, however, star striker Modeste, among others, left the club. In addition, they lost all of their first matches. Added to this was the triple burden of the Europa League. At this point at the latest, a betting professional would have realized that 1. FC Köln from this season could not be compared to the previous season. But even then, the bookmakers were very hesitant to adjust their ratings. This means that betting against Cologne in the early stages of the season would very often have been profitable.